In the ICC ODI World Cup 2023, Afghanistan has displayed considerable promise. On Monday, they secured their third victory of the campaign by defeating their continental rivals, Sri Lanka.
With three wins in their last four matches, there is a glimmer of hope for Afghanistan to progress to the knockout stage of the World Cup.
One question which is in the minds of everyone is, can Afghanistan make it to the ICC CWC 2023 semi-finals?
Afghanistan's remaining matches are against the Netherlands, Australia, and South Africa. Two of these opponents are vying for a place in the World Cup's knockout stages.
As of October 30, 2023, Australia and South Africa are in better positions on the points table, while the Netherlands is currently eighth.
Scenario 1: Afghanistan win all their matches
Even if Afghanistan emerges victorious in all their remaining games, they would accumulate 12 points. India and South Africa already have 12 and 10 points, respectively. Furthermore, South Africa has yet to face Afghanistan.
England, Sri Lanka, the Netherlands, and Pakistan are all positioned lower than Afghanistan. Nevertheless, Afghanistan's qualification still hinges on the results of Australia and New Zealand.
Scenario 2: Afghanistan lose one of their matches
Losing any of their remaining group-stage matches would place Afghanistan at significant risk of missing out on qualification. A loss against Australia or South Africa could spell the end for the resilient Afghan team.
Scenario 3: Afghanistan lose more than one of their remaining matches
If Afghanistan experience more than one defeat in the remaining three games, their journey in the World Cup would come to an end, and they would be out of the qualification race.
Scenario 4: If Australia win all their matches for the season
Let's assume that Afghanistan won all their remaining three matches in the ICC ODI World Cup. This would also mean they secure a victory over their direct competitor, Australia.
Currently, Australia hold eight points, two more than Afghanistan, having played the same number of matches.
If Afghanistan lose to Australia, they would exit the tournament. If Australia win their remaining games, they would qualify for the semi-finals ahead of Afghanistan.